Friday, June 11, 2010

Are Greens Close to Winning Seats in Canada? BC?

The most recent EKOS poll noted that continuing support for the Green Party of Canada at 12.6% nationally may be a sign that they could achieve seats. A January 2010 poll showed support at 11.5% nationally, with BC, Ontario, and Vancouver looking like promising areas::

Glancing at the numbers and recalling the 2008 results, my initial reaction is that British Columbia and metro Vancouver might be the most fruitful territory. Yesterday's poll showed the Greens polling at 20.2% in British Columbia, statistically even with the Liberals::

Conservative MP Gary Lunn in Saanich-Gulf Islands should be worried, given his lacklustre numbers last election and the fact that Elizabeth May will be running in the next election. Examining the 2008 election results by ridings in BC provides an interesting scenario. There are a handful of Conservative held ridings with low winning margins that can be targeted by the Greens, at the risk of splitting the left-centre vote. The NDP has been enjoying solid support in BC, so given the Liberal woes of late, targeting Liberal-held riding may be tempting. The numbers point to limited opportunities, so given finite respurces, it probably makes sense to only focus on a few BC ridings, which I'll be blogging about in the future.

Song:: Green Day-'Working Class Hero'
Twitterversion:: [blog] EKOS poll showing stable support for #GPC {Green Party of Canada}. Can this translate to MPs in BC? @Prof_K

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