Thursday, March 10, 2011

Mapping Fast Ford Nation in Toronto

Click on image for larger view

I decided to create a map {using MapWindow 4.8.1 on an XP Pro partition on a Macbook 3,1}. I obtained the map shapefiles here, using the tcl3_icitw.shp file from the May 2010 (MTM 3 Degree Zone 10, NAD27) download. I wanted to get a sense of how the city is divided based on Matt's compiled information. Is this {Fordmania or Ford Nation} just a central core/downtown elites versus the 'burbs schism? I wanted to look at:
  1. How the councillors are voting with respect to "Ford Nation" {colour coded}
  2. The percentage of votes Rob Ford received in each ward {label in each ward}
So, I added Matt's data in a field, as well as the 2010 mayoral election results [pdf], compiled here on the Torontoist by ward. Just for reference, overall Rob Ford had 47.1% of the vote, representing 383,501 votes.

click for larger image. e-mail ken {at} rhizomicon {dot} com for a copy
While this is early times with just 9 "major" votes, an interesting pattern is emerging.  Again, just to clarify, the colours represent how the councillors have voted and the labels in each ward are the ward number and the percentage of votes that Rob Ford received in that ward. Wards 22 {St. Paul's} and 32 {Beaches-East York}, represented by Josh Matlow and Mary-Margaret McMahon, respectively, are leaning towards being in "Ford Nation", despite having voting for Rob Ford in numbers about 15 points below the city average. More interesting is the bucking of the trend in pockets of North York and Scarborough. Wards 9 {York Centre} and 38 {Scarborough Centre}, both with over 57% of voters supporting Rob Ford, have councillors supporting him in only 3 of 9 major votes.

It will be interesting to see if this pattern persists over time, as this would shows a city divided beyond a simple downtown/suburbs divide. Like I said, it's early times and there's not much data, so these percentages can swing wildly.

Twitterversion:: [blog+map] Mapping "Ford Nation" based on @Torontoist chart. Suburban councillors resisting Fordmania? @impolitical @Prof_K

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