Thursday, April 28, 2011

The NDP Surge:: Who's Defecting?

There a lot of buzz about the NDP and I wanted to decompose EKOS data to determine where it's coming, not geographically, but partywise. Back in March, I did a very long post analyzing EKOS data from late February-early March attempting to deconstruct patterns not readily evident. The Conservatives were doing a good job of attracting the 2008 voters of other parties, while the NDP and Greens were bleeding off double digit percentages to other parties. The NDP wasn't doing a great job of attracting the support of 2008 voters for the two major parties. The latest EKOS poll {below} shows a big shift. Looking across the rows, you can see how a party is doing in attracting voters who voted for another party in 2008.

Loyalty Pattern comparing 2008 vote to 2011 intent,
EKOS data 24-26 April
Looking at the second row, the NDP has picked up double digit support from each of the other parties. 

Looking at the same data but adjusting for relative party support {2008 overall vote}, we can readily see where the shifts in support have been {see table below}. While the NDP surge in Québec at the expense of the Bloc is old hat, this shows the NDP is picking up support from all of the parties. In fact, more NDP support has been siphoned off from the Conservatives {4.70%} than the Bloc {3.36%}.

2011 federal vote intent by 2008 vote, adjusted by 2008 overall vote percentages.
EKOS data, 24-26 April 2011.
Note the NDP is doing a better job of getting converts than any other party. Ignatieff's Liberals have done a better job of getting supporters of other parties to join the big red tent than Harper has been able to for the Conservatives. I'm not alone in believing that Harper was bumping up against a ceiling, limiting his ability to attract more voters. Examining degree centrality in social network analysis {using UCInet 6.328} shows the pattern of conversion and defection {see table below}. The conversions {InDegree} are the same as the "Total from other parties" above. The defections are the OutDegree statistics::

The Liberals have lost a large number of supporters, 10.66%, as have the Conservatives at 8.74% and the NDP at 5.57%. Looking at both OutDegree and InDegree shows the NDP being the only party with more converts than defections, by a sizeable margin.

The seat projections are getting interesting with respect to the NDP, with several having the party as the official opposition {below}::

CPC:: 143 NDP:: 47  LPC:: 74   GPC::  0  BQ:: 43 

Too Close to Call
CPC:: 142 NDP:: 88  LPC:: 64   GPC::  0  BQ:: 14 

CPC:: 139 NDP:: 98  LPC:: 56   GPC::  0  BQ:: 14  OTH:: 1

Democratic Space-Average
CPC:: 156  NDP:: 65    LPC:: 55    GPC::  0  BQ:: 31   


CPC:: 149  NDP:: 35    LPC:: 76    GPC::  0  BQ:: 48   

Twitterversion:: [blog] Analysis of EKOS data examines the partisan source of the #NDP surge. It's not just the Bloc & Liberals @Prof_K

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